Market Ethos - Economists vs analysts Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Aug 10, 2023 Here we are again, closing out Q2 earnings season for the U.S. and Canadian equity markets. The S&P 500 is now over 84% complete and keeping with standard practice, has seen positive surprise rates of about 80%. As inflation has continued to be a positive... Read more
Investor Strategy: Summer has flown by (August 2023) Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Aug 04, 2023 Time often seems to slow down during market sell-offs or corrections, as the volatility creates a more news-filled world. On the flip side, when markets keep going up, time flies. So, if you are wondering why this summer seems to have flown by quickly... Read more
Market Ethos - Special FX Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Jul 25, 2023 At the beginning of the year most strategists expected a couple things: recession to soon materialize and the Fed to stop hiking, pivot mid-year, and then aggressively cut in the second half leading to U.S. dollar weakness. None of that really materialized... Read more
Market Ethos - Style Post-Mortem: Learnings from 2022 Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Jul 19, 2023 In 2022, we had a positive opinion and tilted towards the value/dividend factor among equity holdings in our multi-asset model portfolios and, subsequently, a rather negative opinion on the growth factor. That worked out really, really well, adding a... Read more
Market Ethos - Labour market still strong Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Jul 11, 2023 Well, it looks like AI (artificial intelligence) has not replaced everyone’s job just yet. Last week saw a surprisingly strong ADP employment report of 497k – double what economists were expecting. Then, on Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported... Read more
Investor Strategy: Mid-year check: Everything ‘K? Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Jul 06, 2023 At the moment, it appears both the economy and markets are K shaped. Take the economy; some aspects are going really well. Spending on services remains robust, thanks to pent-up demand and still resilient labour markets. Meanwhile, manufacturing and other... Read more
Market Ethos - Dancing sober rarely lasts Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Jun 28, 2023 If the punch bowl is stimulus, it is safe to say that over the past number of years the market has become rather hooked on this sweet, intoxicating elixir. Quantitative easing, rate changes and twists all had pretty big impacts on stock prices, both up... Read more
Market Ethos - What's driving dividend divergence? Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Jun 21, 2023 The headlines are currently dominated by stories or ‘financial explanations’ about the jump in U.S. equities as they enjoy one of the best weeks in months. AI, Fed pausing rate hikes, some decent economic data, and improving breadth are the most prevalent... Read more
Market Ethos - It's priced in...or is it? Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Jun 13, 2023 Have you ever heard the words “it’s priced in,” referring to the market or an investment pricing in some sort of potential negative event? The TSX is trading at 13x earnings estimates, historically low for this index, clearly pricing in some uncertainty... Read more
Investor Strategy: Foot off the gas and hover over the brake Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Jun 09, 2023 The market advance certainly supports the bulls, as does continued strong employment and recovery signs in housing. On the other side are the bears, highlighting the narrow breadth and weakness in many forward-looking economic signs pointing to recession... Read more