Market Ethos - Data, schmata...what's in a number anyway? Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Dec 14, 2022 This is a big week, with the release of the latest U.S. inflation number. Expectations are for year over year Consumer Price Index (CPI) to continue to drift lower, falling from 7.7% in October to 7.3% in November. This decrease is already priced in,... Read more
Investor Strategy: Santa may have come early - December 2022 Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Dec 07, 2022 We are not buying it. This appears to be another bear market rally, and maybe it even makes it to the holidays or into 2023. With the S&P back to trading almost 18x forward earnings, which are being revised lower, the more this rally goes, the less sustainable... Read more
Market Ethos - Do we believe in a Santa Claus rally? Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Nov 29, 2022 The term ‘Santa Claus rally’ is a term coined over the years for a good reason. Data back over a century reveals that December has the highest probability of any month to be in the green for the TSX and S&P 500 – 77% and 76%, respectively. The average... Read more
Market Ethos - Kapow!! Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Nov 27, 2022 Well, that was a day! A better-than-expected U.S. CPI (inflation) print kicked off the largest one-day rally the market has seen since the 2020 pandemic bear. S&P 500 +5.5%, NASDAQ +7.3%, TSX +3.3% ... hell, even bonds +2.9%. For the S&P 500, this was... Read more
Investor Strategy: Road Not Taken - November 2022 Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Nov 10, 2022 The next few quarters will likely remain volatile in both directions. Fortunately, entry points today in either equities or bonds do offer a compelling 12-month outlook. In a year, inflation will likely have subsided to a degree. If a recession arises... Read more
Market Ethos - Defanging the FANGMAN Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by RWL on Nov 01, 2022 2022 has not been a fun year to be an investor, an advisor, and – most definitively from personal experience – a portfolio manager. Inflation remains the market’s biggest angst, there is a potential recession of sorts on the horizon, and equity indexes... Read more
Market Ethos - Uncertainty is the name of the game Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by Dolores Jandoc on Oct 18, 2022 Last Wednesday, if you somehow had a premonition that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was NOT going to show signs of cooling but instead surprise to the upside to bring core CPI to its highest annual pace in four decades, you would have expected markets... Read more
Market Ethos - Is the other shoe going to drop? Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by Dolores Jandoc on Oct 13, 2022 This bear market started off in an orderly fashion. Thanks to inflation, central banks hiked rates at speeds not seen in many decades and longer yields rose quickly from very low levels. As a result, markets came down as higher rates/yields beget lower... Read more
Investor Strategy: When does the bear market end? - October 2022 Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by Dolores Jandoc on Oct 05, 2022 Even after the strong mid-summer rally, markets were left in a slightly negative position to end the quarter. In Canada, the S&P/TSX finished down -1.4% and the S&P 500 finished slightly worse down -4.9% (USD). Market drawdowns in the US were not drastically... Read more
Market Ethos - Searching for the bottom: it's all about inflation Filed Under: Investment Services | Portfolio Management | Wealth Management Published by Dolores Jandoc on Sep 27, 2022 Ok, we are not fans of seasonal trends in the market for one simple reason: it is never that simple! Nonetheless, September, which has a history of lower returns and higher volatility, is certainly giving the seasonal supporters strong evidence this year... Read more