At the beginning of the year most strategists expected a couple things: recession to soon materialize and the Fed to stop hiking, pivot mid-year, and then aggressively cut in the second half leading to U.S. dollar weakness. None of that really materialized, except the U.S. dollar peaking last fall. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is now down -11.8% from the peak and down -3.6% from the beginning of June. The DXY index also briefly dipped below 100 this week, breaking through support and well below key moving averages.

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