Market Ethos - Welcome to the backside of the inflation spike

The common inflation narrative from the Federal Reserve, other central banks, and just about every economist has been: this is “transitory.” Rightly so, as these price spikes have been exacerbated by a combination of supply chain issues, abruptly changing consumer habits and strong demand. However, the real economic danger is not in the headline inflation data, but whether inflation begins to change behaviour – corporate expansion decisions, individual savings patterns, and investment choices. In this week’s report, we take a closer look at the inflation data and consider possible signs that may tell us whether the recent spike may grow into a longer-term issue.

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