The Bank of Canada needs to worry about a recession Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Oct 27, 2023 The Bank of Canada kept its official interest rate at 5 percent on Wednesday, October 25, 2023. The Governor, Tiff Macklem, emphasized that the BOC is willing to hike rates higher if needed, as he is not happy with the rate of decline in the inflation... Read more
Banks need to revise their house price forecasts down a lot Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Oct 20, 2023 Forecasts of increasing house prices in Canada by the economics departments of the large Canadian banks are wildly optimistic. This matters because it directly affects the risk assessment for their most important lending division — mortgage and consumer... Read more
The attack by Hamas increases the chance of a wider conflict Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Oct 13, 2023 Last week Israel was attacked by Hamas, shocking the world. But stock markets and the price of crude oil have demonstrated remarkable complacency after this momentous event. Is this just another skirmish in an area that has been in conflict for decades... Read more
A collapse in bank lending is ominous Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Oct 06, 2023 A collapse in bank lending is damaging for the economy, as growing credit is the most important fuel of modern economic systems. Without an annual increase in debt outstanding, a recession becomes almost inevitable. Will the current downturn in bank lending... Read more