Extremely low rates triggered a mania like the tulip bulb story Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 29, 2023 History will judge that the long period of low interest rates, which endured from 2009 to early 2022 was a colossal mistake. Investors piled into fixed income assets that were extremely overpriced based on rates close to zero. And now most assets that... Read more
Stock market traders wishing for rate cuts will be disappointed Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 22, 2023 The U.S. stock market sold off this week after the Federal Reserve announced that rates will have to stay higher for longer. But the stock market should be careful what it wishes for. The record shows clearly that rate cuts are usually bad for the stock... Read more
A Minsky moment for Canada has arrived Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 15, 2023 Canada’s Minsky Moment has arrived, as the demand for new credit slows and a substantial portion of household mortgage borrowers are not paying the interest on their debt, much less repaying the principal. Hyman Minsky was an American economist who focused... Read more
The Bank of Canada pauses but rate cuts are not coming soon Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 08, 2023 The Bank of Canada goes on hold, with no rate hike this week. But those expecting significant interest rate cuts any time soon will be disappointed. The end of the multi-decade period of declining rates passed without much fanfare. But rates in Canada... Read more
Crude oil demand will suffer as transport goes electric Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 01, 2023 While the world’s crude oil consumption will soon start to decline, many investors expect there will be robust demand for crude oil for decades to come. But it is not too early to analyze the impact of declining demand for crude oil when choosing long-term... Read more