U.S. government: deep tax cuts and deficits Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Apr 27, 2018 The U.S. government recently enacted deep tax cuts that were designed to boost the economy. But tax cuts could mean smaller government revenue, and projections for deficits in government spending indicate huge increases in total government debt over the... Read more
Energy fails to perform in a benign environment Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Apr 20, 2018 The Toronto S&P/TSX index was down about 5 percent in the first quarter of 2018, while the important energy sector index (S&P/TSX Capped Energy) was down even more, by 8 percent. This was during a time of higher oil prices worldwide. In the US, energy... Read more
Loss aversion could be a very costly human quirk Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Apr 13, 2018 Loss Aversion is the human preference to avoid taking losses. This powerful force can cost people a great deal of money when it comes to trading stocks and buying and selling real estate. Can humans overcome their desire to avoid taking losses? I wrote... Read more
Inverted yield curves predict the future Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Apr 06, 2018 A flattening yield curve, based on the difference between the 2-year and 10-year (or 30-year) US Treasury bonds, contains valuable information about the future. The recent rapid increase in short-term interest rates means that the short-term rate is catching... Read more