Looking back at 2024, I often felt I had “bull market writer’s block.” With markets rising steadily, there was only so much to say without sounding repetitive. Now, just two months into 2025, I’m already writing my third market update —longing for that relative calm. The rapid shifts in market narratives—and what I’ve now dubbed “chaos policy” from our neighbors—have certainly kept things interesting, to put it nicely.
“Chaos Policy” and Tariffs
So far in early 2025, we've endured a series of on-again, off-again tariff announcements from our southern neighbors, culminating in official implementation just last night. These new protectionist measures explicitly target Canada, with vague explanations around their rationale and negotiability at best—heightening uncertainty about their duration and impact on Canadian businesses—and contributing to the year's first broad market correction:
If there’s one thing we know for sure, it’s that markets don’t respond well to uncertainty. The sudden start-stop nature of these tariff policies, combined with a tit-for-tat response from our government, has only amplified investor anxiety. This uncertainty—paired with February’s typical seasonal weakness and the fading “sugar high” that often follows a post-election year—has weighed heavily on sentiment, pushing investor confidence down to some of the lowest levels seen since the pandemic:
Where Do We Stand?
As a result of the ongoing policy uncertainty, most major market indices have now given back their early-year gains, leaving investors understandably concerned about what comes next. This is an important moment to remember that market corrections are a normal part of investing. They happen every year—often more than once—and for any number of reasons:
While each pullback can feel unsettling, the current 5% dip in the S&P 500 is already the 30th such decline since the March 2009 low. Yet despite these regular setbacks, the market has continued to deliver strong positive returns over that same period. When we take a step back, it’s clear that pullbacks—while uncomfortable—are part of a normal, functioning market. Historically, the market’s long-term trajectory has been strongly positive, and corrections are simply part of the ride.
Sorting Through the Geopolitics
Naturally, there’s concern about the U.S. administration’s motives in targeting key allies with tariffs. One theory points to a negotiating strategy—a kind of “art of the deal” approach. Another explanation, hinted at by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, suggests the administration may be aiming to lower long-term interest rates. By allowing short-term market volatility, they may be hoping to pull down mortgage rates (which have remained stubbornly high) and ease government debt service and new issuance burdens—ultimately giving a boost to domestic "Main Street" growth. In either case, both explanations suggest these actions may be intended as temporary measures rather than lasting policy shifts.
Whatever the reasoning, time will be the true test of how these policies play out. Despite the market’s swift negative reaction, we take comfort in the ongoing strength of the businesses we own in our portfolios, which continue to demonstrate solid fundamentals and promising long-term prospects. We’re monitoring policy developments closely and remain ready to adjust course if conditions change.
Looking Ahead
As with previous corrections, we remain committed to a disciplined, long-term view. History shows that staying the course through periods of volatility has paid off time and again. If we’ve said it once, we’ve said it a million times: this too shall pass.
- Jack
2024 Tax Document Checklist Now Available:
To support you in preparing for the upcoming tax season, your personalized 2024 Tax Document Checklist has been generated and is now available through your online client portal. For your convenience, a printed copy will also be mailed on March 14th.
This important document provides a detailed overview of the tax documents you can expect to receive across your accounts, along with estimated delivery timelines. It is a valuable resource to help you track incoming tax documents and stay organized throughout your tax preparation process.
The checklist includes both official tax documents issued by Richardson Wealth and those you may receive directly from third parties, such as mutual fund companies or limited partnerships. Please note that updates, amendments, or additional documents may still be issued based on account activity.
We encourage you to review your checklist carefully and keep it on hand as you gather your tax materials.
If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact our team — we’re happy to assist.
The Race to Lead in Humanoid Robotics:
The rise of humanoid robotics is accelerating, and Figure AI is one of the lesser-known private innovators leading the charge, recently reaching a nearly $40 billion valuation with backing from our portfolio companies like Nvidia and Microsoft. Figure aims to deploy 100,000 robots within four years, targeting labor shortages and automating repetitive tasks across industries — and now, even the home.
As Figure CEO Brett Adcock recently shared, rapid progress with its in-house Helix AI has fast-tracked the company’s push into household robotics. Alpha testing in real homes is now set to begin this year, moving the timeline up by two years as Helix advances faster than expected.
Figure’s latest demo, featured in a new CNET video, shows its humanoid robots working together to put away groceries and sort packages, offering a glimpse of what’s coming. It’s a clear example of physical AI in action — a theme gaining momentum as our portfolio companies continue to invest and lead in this space.
Check out the full video to see Figure’s robots in action and why this technology is quickly moving from concept to reality.
