Hilliard’s Weekend Notebook

Thoughts, views and opinions as current events unfold: With topics taken from current market events and my latest book — When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash (Dundurn: March 2015)  and my first book Investment Traps and How to Avoid Them (1999) — this short piece will give you unique and valuable insights filtered by my thirty-six years’ experience as an investment professional.

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An early indicator of recessions is very useful for investors

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jul 05, 2024

On July 5, 2024, the unemployment rate in the U.S. was announced at 4.1 percent. This report appears to have triggered an extremely reliable recession indicator. The Sahm Rule, named after former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm, says that if the... Read more
Massive glut in solar panel supply pushes prices lower

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jun 20, 2024

Growing China-based production of solar panels and other key components ensures that a massive supply glut will arrive in 2024. Prices for solar panels are plummeting in most world markets, but the U.S. consumer will pay substantially higher prices. According... Read more
The Canadian housing bubble needs to burst

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jun 14, 2024

Real residential house prices in Canada have grown by more than four-fold since 1970. This means that house prices have grown much faster than inflation, and housing unaffordability is extreme compared to the past and other countries like the U.S. Can... Read more
Bank of Canada cuts rates and sends the market a signal

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jun 07, 2024

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 bps on Wednesday and the ECB made a similar cut on Thursday. This marks a significant moment in the history of interest rate policy changes and could be a turning point. CPI Inflation has moderated enough (2... Read more
German property price crash will not become a crisis

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on May 31, 2024

Germany property prices are plummeting. Prices for commercial properties and multi-family buildings are dropping with insolvencies and foreclosures soaring. Even house prices are falling. The housing market in Germany is very different from the U.S.,... Read more
NVIDIA could be the most important stock on the planet

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on May 24, 2024

NVIDIA, the computer chip and artificial intelligence company, announced excellent results this week, pushing the stock to new highs. The company’s share price has tripled from a year ago, making NVIDIA worth $2.5 trillion. Stock traders were pleased... Read more
The Biden tariffs against China imports are a mistake

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on May 17, 2024

The Biden administration has announced increased tariffs on goods imported from China in several categories, including electric cars, batteries and solar panels. The announcement cites “China’s unfair trade practices” especially in technology transfer... Read more
The U.S. government sliding deeper and deeper into debt

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on May 10, 2024

The U.S. federal government will set a new record for borrowing this year, in the trillions of dollars. Government deficits reached a record high in 2020, due to government help to the private sector during COVID. But now, even without a crisis, the deficit... Read more