Hilliard’s Weekend Notebook


Thoughts, views and opinions as current events unfold: With topics taken from current market events and my latest book — When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash (Dundurn: March 2015)  and my first book Investment Traps and How to Avoid Them (1999) — this short piece will give you unique and valuable insights filtered by my thirty-six years’ experience as an investment professional.
 

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Canada is falling behind the U.S.

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Oct 04, 2024

Canada is falling behind the U.S. in economic growth. Up until a few years ago, Canada and its huge neighbour to the south grew by about the same annual rate. But since 2022 Canada is falling behind by most measures. What happened? The Economist wrote... Read more
China moves into panic mode

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 27, 2024

China entered full panic mode, announcing stimulus measures to counteract the deflationary impact of weak property prices. But those policies may not be enough to lift the economy to the 5 percent growth target. This week China announced several measures... Read more
A close call between recession and a new bubble

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 20, 2024

On Wednesday September 18, 2024, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut 50 basis points off its benchmark rate, making the first move to lower rates in four years. History shows that economic cycles and stock market outcomes after the first cut are divided. Either... Read more
China property meltdown

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 13, 2024

China continues to experience a significant collapse in its property sector, which is weighing heavily on Chinese families. Numerous attempts at stimulating the sector have failed. When will China’s property sector start to recover? There is a view suggesting... Read more
A weak U.S. jobs report

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 06, 2024

A weakening trend for the economy in the U.S. was confirmed on Friday. A recession is likely, although the official notification of recession will not come until 2025. The Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates later in September after declaring... Read more
A Trump or Harris win could lead to very different outcomes

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Aug 23, 2024

The U.S. election is less than 80 days away. The race is a dead heat, but only one of them will win and the impact on markets and the economy may be very different depending on who wins control of the White House, the House of Representatives and the... Read more
Inflation will be sticky and keep interest rates up

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Aug 16, 2024

U.S. consumer inflation has returned to normal. This week’s 2.9 percent year-over-year gain for the CPI is not low in the historical context. Expectations for more good news on inflation are unrealistic outside of recession. And interest rates will not... Read more
The stock market correction is a warning sign

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Aug 09, 2024

U.S. stock markets crashed from Friday last week through Monday this week. High flying tech stocks cratered as well as the broad indexes like the S&P 500 and Japan’s Nikkei. Was this a crash of the large-cap technology sector, or does it signal the broader... Read more
Recession in the U.S. is coming soon

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Aug 02, 2024

The Federal Reserve delayed cutting rates this week while ignoring signs of a pending recession. The U.S. economy is slowing rapidly and there is a multitude of clues that the U.S. will enter recession before the end of this year. The Federal Reserve... Read more