Hilliard’s Weekend Notebook


Thoughts, views and opinions as current events unfold: With topics taken from current market events and my latest book — When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash (Dundurn: March 2015)  and my first book Investment Traps and How to Avoid Them (1999) — this short piece will give you unique and valuable insights filtered by my thirty-six years’ experience as an investment professional.
 

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The great mortgage reset in Canada will hit hard

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Nov 01, 2024

Canadian policy makers are worried about potential weakness in the economy due to higher interest rates. One of the biggest challenges facing Canadians is the increase in monthly payments that comes with higher rates. Although there have been four Bank... Read more
A jumbo rate cut and worries about deflation

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Oct 25, 2024

The Bank of Canada made a jumbo rate cut, its fourth cut to the benchmark interest rate. The 50 basis points cut brought the policy rate to 3.75 percent. The justification for such a large cut is that CPI inflation has dropped below the target of 2 percent... Read more
The U.S. election is too close to call

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Oct 18, 2024

The U.S. election on November 5 2024 is touted as a major event, as the policy and style differences between the two candidates are unusually large. Given how close the polls are — within the margin of error — there is a high degree of uncertainty and... Read more
Scientists receive Nobel Prizes amid controversy over AI research

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Oct 11, 2024

Canadian physicist Geoffrey Hinton and three other scientists received Nobel Prizes this week for work related to advances in artificial intelligence. Their discoveries have the potential to revolutionize mankind’s ability to cure disease. But these advances... Read more
Canada is falling behind the U.S.

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Oct 04, 2024

Canada is falling behind the U.S. in economic growth. Up until a few years ago, Canada and its huge neighbour to the south grew by about the same annual rate. But since 2022 Canada is falling behind by most measures. What happened? The Economist wrote... Read more
China moves into panic mode

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 27, 2024

China entered full panic mode, announcing stimulus measures to counteract the deflationary impact of weak property prices. But those policies may not be enough to lift the economy to the 5 percent growth target. This week China announced several measures... Read more
A close call between recession and a new bubble

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 20, 2024

On Wednesday September 18, 2024, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut 50 basis points off its benchmark rate, making the first move to lower rates in four years. History shows that economic cycles and stock market outcomes after the first cut are divided. Either... Read more
China property meltdown

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 13, 2024

China continues to experience a significant collapse in its property sector, which is weighing heavily on Chinese families. Numerous attempts at stimulating the sector have failed. When will China’s property sector start to recover? There is a view suggesting... Read more
A weak U.S. jobs report

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 06, 2024

A weakening trend for the economy in the U.S. was confirmed on Friday. A recession is likely, although the official notification of recession will not come until 2025. The Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates later in September after declaring... Read more