Elon Musk will not meet his deficit cutting targets Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Feb 07, 2025 Elon Musk is wrong about how government deficits work. He is firmly in the camp that says that government budgets must be balanced because otherwise a government will go bankrupt. He compares the government deficit problem to a household spending crisis... Read more
Trump 2.0 is destined to fail Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jan 31, 2025 President Trump was inaugurated for the second time on last week. He is taking over the Presidency at an unusual time for the economy and financial markets. Trump has only a small chance of living up to the hype and expectations over his promise to Make... Read more
Canada should use the nuclear option against Trump Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jan 24, 2025 As soon as February 1, the U.S. might impose a 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada. Crude oil is one of the biggest Canadian exports to the U.S. One possibility for retaliation, termed the “nuclear option”, is to cut off all crude oil exports... Read more
Musk will take a chainsaw to government spending Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jan 17, 2025 The Department of Government Efficiency, known as DOGE, is headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Elon Musk is well known as the world’s wealthiest entrepreneur, while Ramaswamy was a candidate for the Republican nomination in 2023. The goal of DOGE... Read more
A credit crunch coming soon Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jan 10, 2025 Hints of an imminent credit crunch in the U.S. and Canada are piling up. Too much debt in commercial real estate, residential real estate, credit card balances, personal loans, mortgages, builders’ construction loans and even governments could trigger... Read more
A very reliable recession indicator is flashing red Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jan 03, 2025 Among the several U.S. recession indicators warning of trouble to come, this might be the best one to watch. Yield curve inversion sounds a bit wonky, but it is straightforward. The yield curve on government bonds is derived from the different interest... Read more
The Fed shocks the market triggering an abrupt selloff Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Dec 20, 2024 The U.S. Federal Reserve surprised markets this week with a small rate cut (expected), a forecast for fewer rate cuts next year and higher inflation (very unexpected). This was a more hawkish report than the market expected. The stock market reacted very... Read more
Anarcho-capitalist Javier Milei disrupts Argentina and has U.S. admirers Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Dec 13, 2024 Javier Milei is making huge changes in Argentina and U.S. leaders like Donald Trump and Elon Musk are planning to follow his radical moves. Will Argentina survive Milei? Will the U.S. copy his program? Source: The Economist While Americans were electing... Read more
Stock prices reach bubble levels in US Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Dec 06, 2024 The U.S. stock market is extremely expensive, by all measures. Technology companies like Nvidia lead the way, but even the average stock is overvalued in relation to past cycles. When will there be a correction in the U.S. stock market? As we approach... Read more
Trump threats of tariffs worry Canadians Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Nov 29, 2024 President-elect Trump doubled down on his threat to impose tariffs on imports to the U.S. This time he focused on two countries — Mexico and Canada — with a statement that he would put a 25 percent tariff on imports. How should Canada counter these threats?... Read more