Hilliard’s Weekend Notebook

Thoughts, views and opinions as current events unfold: With topics taken from current market events and my latest book — When the Bubble Bursts: Surviving the Canadian Real Estate Crash (Dundurn: March 2015)  and my first book Investment Traps and How to Avoid Them (1999) — this short piece will give you unique and valuable insights filtered by my thirty-six years’ experience as an investment professional.

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Stock market traders wishing for rate cuts will be disappointed

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 22, 2023

The U.S. stock market sold off this week after the Federal Reserve announced that rates will have to stay higher for longer. But the stock market should be careful what it wishes for. The record shows clearly that rate cuts are usually bad for the stock... Read more
A Minsky moment for Canada has arrived

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 15, 2023

Canada’s Minsky Moment has arrived, as the demand for new credit slows and a substantial portion of household mortgage borrowers are not paying the interest on their debt, much less repaying the principal. Hyman Minsky was an American economist who focused... Read more
The Bank of Canada pauses but rate cuts are not coming soon

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 08, 2023

The Bank of Canada goes on hold, with no rate hike this week. But those expecting significant interest rate cuts any time soon will be disappointed. The end of the multi-decade period of declining rates passed without much fanfare. But rates in Canada... Read more
Crude oil demand will suffer as transport goes electric

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Sep 01, 2023

While the world’s crude oil consumption will soon start to decline, many investors expect there will be robust demand for crude oil for decades to come. But it is not too early to analyze the impact of declining demand for crude oil when choosing long-term... Read more
Inflation moderates but still could bite hard

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Aug 18, 2023

Inflation, as measured by the U.S. CPI, moderated in July. The headline measure was recorded as 3.2 percent from a year ago, while the closely watched core CPI was a more troublesome 4.7 percent. Is inflation beaten yet? In the mid-1970s a concentrated... Read more
Deflation risk in China is real

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Aug 11, 2023

The risk of deflation in China is real. A moderating pace of growth, large private sector debts and a slowdown in the crucial property sector suggest lower income, prices and deflation. Is China entering a debt deflation spiral? China has enjoyed a longer-than-four-decades... Read more
The Federal Reserve hikes rates again

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jul 28, 2023

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates again, to 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. This is the highest Federal Funds rate in 22 years. The Fed has stated that it is determined to wrestle inflation back under control, which means getting to its 2 percent... Read more
China property market struggles with debt bubble

Published by Hilliard MacBeth on Jul 21, 2023

China began a new stage in its multi-year struggle with insolvency among property developers. One of the biggest, China Evergrande, reported losses of US$81 billion this week. Will massive debts of US$207 billion dollars in the property sector drag China... Read more